Believe on Wall Street that Trump can be “contained” politically
All which I doubt… hence…. Now into year-end…
Neutral US Dollar
Still see yield creeping higher..
Think growth and inflation will come down 50% vs. post Trump move fast… next 10 trading days…
Some support in long-end of FI here..
This is tactical……
START OF GS note:
Economic mplications of the Trump Agenda (Fawcett/Stehn)
Goldman Sach: Global Economic Implications of the Trump agenda (Fawcett/Stehn)
Our simulations suggest that Mr. Trump’s policies might act as a modest drag on global growth.
DM growth receives a brief boost from the fiscal stimulus but then weakens and spillovers into EM economies are negative throughout.
Our analysis of the alternative policy packages suggests that the risks around this base case are asymmetric. A larger fiscal package could boost global growth moderately more in the near term, but a more adverse policy mix would likely act as a significant drag on world growth in subsequent years.
END of GS report… (underscore is mine!)
The other “early conclusion” is… the early rally in stocks has been driven by stocks which had their prime 10,20,30 years ago – so apparently the “future” lies in old manufacturing and keeping jobs rather than productivity – That PARADOX is the biggest market wise …Now GS confirms that “old school” is not the future but that combining best of globalization and technology is!
(See my piece on link btw globalization and technology inspired by Peter Theil’s book here)
Here is a few charts illustrating the major changes: