steen jakobsen
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Steen’s Chronicle: welcome back to the 1970s

In 1976, the author Astrid Lindgren of Pippi Longstockings fame incurred a 102% marginal tax rate by the Swedish Government, she countered by writing a satirical fairytale, "Pomperipossa in Monismania" - I think the title explains itself.…
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Macro Digest: Another week, Another Brexit vote - The momentum now clearly with orderly divorce from the EU

Summary:  Another week, another Brexit vote. PM Johnson keeps trying and pushing for a Brexit by October 31st. Meanwhile Labour is trying to force a 2nd vote and to stall process to force extension to minimum January 31st. Saxo Bank…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest : False Stabilisation & Trade war

The G-20 meeting in Japan is a very bad place to go looking for a trade deal between China and US (WTO is one of the main agenda points) The rhetoric change in China this week takes down our 75/25 for a deal odds to 50/50 – Remember:…
steen jakobsen
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FOMC - didn't buy the deflation.....yet....

FOMC delivered as we expected but more hawkish than consensus:   Saxo preview of Fed - May 1st 2019 We remain with key elements of yesterday’s view: If Saxo is right: small risk off – a correction inside the present bull market…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: ECB hit MASSIVE PANIC button - what's next...

Draghi is failing the Feyman test of knowledge/facts: Not only is ECB hitting panic button but risk remains to the downside!!! See this morning PRE-ECB note from me. Our overall macro path from here is: Now the Global Policy Panic theme I…
Macro digest chinese technology
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Macro Digest: Chinese Technology stocks breaks down.....bad omen ?

Four charts to illustrate the “pain” of the market: The macro backdrop story is this: The CREDIT CAKE – the credit impulse + nominal debt issuance is collapsing – since the GFC the world monetary growth (main debt) has risen…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: It's not Turkey, it's the debt cycle

There is currently a lot of focus on Turkey, and for good reason, but Turkey is really only a second or third derivative of the global macro story. Turkey represents the catalyst for a new theme, which is “too much debt and current account…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: Deficits matters again - revisit to 1980s ? CNY and JPY in focus - deficit vs. surplus

Part of the ”Chinese panic” is the rising current account deficit….   Conclusion: China needs weaker CNY- we see test and potential break of 7.0000 inside next one year JPY is a turning point – close to being our highest…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: The Italian "non-event" could be a EURCHF event

Idea: Sell EURCHF @ 1.1815 w. s/l 1.2010 Why? Uncertainty of new Italian government commitment to Europe and EUR The fiscal expansion risk down-grade, higher spreads, and more uncertainty. EURCHF correlates well with risk premium…
steen jakobsen
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The Probability of US recession just gone from 60% to 70% over next 12 months ...

https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/969535037074001922   In my 30+ years of trading & economics I have NEVER seen more wrong assumptions and premises than the ones presented by the US Administration on trade. Peter…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest : White House & Congress creates sugar high(?)

Tonight US budget is just a political play, but despite this it will most likely create new “sugar high” for US fixed income, where rates are rising and curve is flattening – RISK of still dominant theme as we have a few days of correction.…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest - VIX close to ALERT warning !

>14.58/60 trigger / presently 13.98   Objective: Risk warning on potential break-up in volatility and down-side in risk   Action: We suggest buying USDJPY volatility down-side as the most “clean” way of playing risk off –…