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Transparent Janet is Imprisoned by a Dilemma of Her Own Making

An unusual Steen’s Chronicle today… as I will share the piece with my friend Professor Mark M McNabb, PhD, CFA from Wake Forest University….Mark and I had exchange on how the Fed has become utterly predictable….here is Mark’s take…
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Fed comment : Very dovish Fed

FED - Very dovish text and update from Fed.. Fed backed down on 2016 and 2016 dots and finally acknowledge that employment growth has slowed. Two charts attached: Text comparison - note how Fed "holds on" to improvement in GDP despite…
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If I were President …

Low-growth, low-expectation world needs a shot in the arm Democracies beset by short-term thinking, bloated political class Policies should emphasise the micro at the expense of the macro Military investment brings surprising rewards…
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Brexit views ... finally the real discussion comes through ...

We are finally moving away from simplistic views on Brexit and on to the two real dominant themes embedded in the UK Brexit….   1.) The fact UK staying in can be worse for Europe than in…… 2.) The fight is not on Europe but…
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Brexit : Why the EU is the least of Britain's worries

Britons will vote on their country's European Union status June 23, but the more important questions remain off-ballot. Photo: iStock    Brexit vote less important than UK's economic structure UK ballot risks further fracturing…
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Central Bank can do nothing - Steen's interview

2016 has seen a popular reaction against zero-bound policies Political elites are struggling to preserve an unfruitful status quo 'The world has become elitist in every way': Jakobsen Political middle has become crowded, stagnant; new…
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Druckenmiller more or less supports out basic MACRO premise...

Gold long, weak US growth, FED is lost and negative interest rates makes no sense...   I have been doing this job for close to 30 years now – through that time I have worked with some of the best talents in trading in the world,…
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Macro Digest: Recession risk keeps increasing...

    Dear All, Quick note to follow up on my RECESSION risk is bigger than 60% call…… from the other week (Yes, I am yet to finish report….)   Recession risk is rising with big allocation implications -…
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FOMC removes "concern" but gives no new direction ...

FOMC announcement Fed drops reference to international concern, but maintains "strong" domestic growth w an undershooting on inflation. This leaves door open for June hike, but market firmly believes in December....as most likely next…
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Steen's Chronicle: The macro narrative is changing

The new sentiment being heard from the world's capitals is one that is familiar to investors but has long appeared alien to policymakers: doubt. Photo: iStock   Global policymakers, central bankers starting to diverge Low interest…
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Macro Digest : Forget politics new trends are in place ...

  European leading growth is turning significant down…. But…versus “expected” it looks better? …. Makes no sense…. Don’t  forget this happens post Draghi – ECB’s  Bazooka …and I find it might interesting…
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Final Fed update..Weaker US is now sanctioned by global central banks

Extremely poor performance by Yellen. The main conclusion remains: A weaker US dollar is the target. Yellen confirmed in the Q&A. This is an almost unchanged economic outlook, but with a more accommodative monetary policy -= Weaker…