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Macro Digest: Yellen night - Party or horror night

Yellen night……   Remember this is a political show, more than a market briefing. Central banks are impotent – its like penicillin too little reality for too long have made the “bacteria’s” resistant. Yellen will represent…
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Fed Fischer speech: Conclusion: slightly dovish tilt...

But.. ever so slightly… New uncertainties and his ”3-4 hikes” from January 6th, 2016 looks gone now… This puts Fed @ 2-3 hikes, while market is 1 bid and offered…. Overall – impressive and charming Vice-Chairman Fisher…..but…
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Fed meeting - focus point and data...

Tonight FOMC is another ”must see” event as the Fed is caught long and wrong its own three to four hikes in 2016 – the employment data on headlines basis continues to support higher inflation through wages but a few “stones” has entered…
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Steen's Chronicle: Back in the USA....

·        From potholes to politics, the US is a mess ·        Level of insightful debate is close to zero ·        Trump attracting huge crowds as Clinton's star fades ·        Economy is messy too and…
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Les 10 prévisions choc pour 2016

Tous les ans, Saxo Bank publie les prévisions dérangeantes de notre Econoclaste Steen Jakobsen concernant l'année à venir. Voici le récapitulatif de cette année, aussi disponible en PDF sur le site de Saxo (ici). La fin du paradigme Toute…
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Happy New Year - 2015 was an amazing macro year, 2016 will be even more exciting...

“May the New Year bring you courage to break your resolutions early! My own plan is to swear off every kind of virtue, so that I triumph even when I fall!”  ― Aleister Crowley, Moonchild   2015 was  an exciting macro year,…
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Steen’s Chronicle: The big nothing?

“I love to talk about nothing. It's the only thing I know anything about” – Janet Yellen……….sorry Oscar Wilde J Finally! Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions is out:  Saxo OP-2016 Link to PDF and less important: Fed hiked!   My…
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Macro Digest: Georgia on my mind

(Photo : The famous "Freedom Square", central place of the Georgian capital Tbilisi. The country could perform 5% growth of GDP in 2015.) -- Georgia quickly becoming a hub for transport and finance Country is an extremely attractive…
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Steen's Chronicle: The Primitive economy - Outlook for next four quarters

It’s time for the final update in 2015 on the forward looking model for 2016 and to present the Primitive Economy. The very economic model we are now reduced to follow after years of poor policy response from central banks and the lack of…
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Quick note on Monetary easing hysteria ...

We came very long and hard into Q4 long EM and risk, but now things how run its course. This week we had the main move on ECB’s further easing and now also a China RRR cut. Remember the majority(80%) of impact from QE and QE like changes…
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Meet Mr and Mrs Consensus

US investors convinced China's fall is inevitable, ignoring Silk Road Fed is indecisive, incoherent and driven by the consensus narrative US investors have ignored the outside world for far too long Fund managers are all crowding into…