Articles

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US Election: Nothing to lose

My present macro speech is titled "Ugly: Don't fight with 'ugly' people as they have nothing to lose". To me, this is the essence of the US presidential campaign. The ugly truth surrounding this ballot lies in the bigger picture, as whomever…
steen jakobsen
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Fed Fischer speech: Conclusion: slightly dovish tilt...

But.. ever so slightly… New uncertainties and his ”3-4 hikes” from January 6th, 2016 looks gone now… This puts Fed @ 2-3 hikes, while market is 1 bid and offered…. Overall – impressive and charming Vice-Chairman Fisher…..but…
steen jakobsen
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Les 10 prévisions choc pour 2016

Tous les ans, Saxo Bank publie les prévisions dérangeantes de notre Econoclaste Steen Jakobsen concernant l'année à venir. Voici le récapitulatif de cette année, aussi disponible en PDF sur le site de Saxo (ici). La fin du paradigme Toute…
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Steen’s Chronicle: The big nothing?

“I love to talk about nothing. It's the only thing I know anything about” – Janet Yellen……….sorry Oscar Wilde J Finally! Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions is out:  Saxo OP-2016 Link to PDF and less important: Fed hiked!   My…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: Georgia on my mind

(Photo : The famous "Freedom Square", central place of the Georgian capital Tbilisi. The country could perform 5% growth of GDP in 2015.) -- Georgia quickly becoming a hub for transport and finance Country is an extremely attractive…
steen jakobsen
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Steen's Chronicle: The Primitive economy - Outlook for next four quarters

It’s time for the final update in 2015 on the forward looking model for 2016 and to present the Primitive Economy. The very economic model we are now reduced to follow after years of poor policy response from central banks and the lack of…
steen jakobsen
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Quick note on Monetary easing hysteria ...

We came very long and hard into Q4 long EM and risk, but now things how run its course. This week we had the main move on ECB’s further easing and now also a China RRR cut. Remember the majority(80%) of impact from QE and QE like changes…
steen jakobsen
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Meet Mr and Mrs Consensus

US investors convinced China's fall is inevitable, ignoring Silk Road Fed is indecisive, incoherent and driven by the consensus narrative US investors have ignored the outside world for far too long Fund managers are all crowding into…
steen jakobsen
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Fed fluffs lines to beat path to US recession in Q1

Fed missed opportunity to raise rates for first time since 2006 Window narrowing on hike timetable with markets 50/50 on hike/cut possibility Janet Yellen struggling to maintain credibility after far from impressive Q&A Prepare…
steen jakobsen
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The old and the new economic order

This fiat economy is unsustainable and must change The cost of input, capital and labour are all rising Output, profit and employment are in poor shape We must adjust to slower growth and start producing On the cusp of a new economic…
steen jakobsen

Why investors are heading East ?

Central and Eastern Europe; a fascinating investment landscape with a growing economic importance and increasingly on Western investor radar. A region well known to Saxo Bank's Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen, who takes a look at the opportunities…
steen jakobsen
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This is now officially a Greek tragedy

There are no winners from this Greek tragedy; only losers Grexit has now become the base case scenario Illiquidity is now the big risk By Steen Jakobsen In many ways, it is relatively easy to understand why the result was a No from…