Conservatives and PM May have executed a terrible campaign – she has done ALL the mistakes of Clinton and the establishment:
Safe pair of hands
Not committing to anything
Talking about energy regulation
No committing to tax freeze
On the other hand Labor has been able to reframe
The Tories question: What kind of Brexit do you want? To what kind of country do you want?
Classic tax & spend, but this time the classic middle class is safe, while “rich” & “corporates” needs to pay more….
Wild promises free lunch and education, 250 billion GBP infrastructure program
No commitment on Brexit
Corbyn policy is economically naïve but he is getting the young voters.
My final call:
The election will end with Tories having EXACTLY the same majority as now – hence a lost election and a muddy BREXIT mandate.
Prime Minister May is the de facto loser independently of the final results as her “management” has been poor and rudderless leaving more doubt than the clear vision needed – hence the title: Unintended consequences (May getting weaker mandate and populous empty promises still attracting voters.)
If correct in my call… GBPUSD should correct 1-2% but overall the next major level is 1.3500 (& 1.4000 in 2018 based on credit impulse, weak dollar and terms of trade improvement & the better trade is probably to be long EURGBP towards parity (EU growth > UK growth, EUR undervalued, EU Current Account surplus vs. UK Current Account)