Articles

,

Macro Digest: Another week, Another Brexit vote - The momentum now clearly with orderly divorce from the EU

Summary:  Another week, another Brexit vote. PM Johnson keeps trying and pushing for a Brexit by October 31st. Meanwhile Labour is trying to force a 2nd vote and to stall process to force extension to minimum January 31st. Saxo Bank…
,

Les taux et l’étau qui se resserre

La séance d’hier c’était le genre de journée qui fait qu’on se demande si on n’a pas meilleur temps d’ouvrir la bourse une fois par semaine juste pour faire un fixing et retourner jouer au golf. Assis sur un banc Que…
,

Marchés financiers : les signes de la dégradation

Nicolas Chéron analyse sur SicavOnline la dynamique baissière qui conduit l'économie mondiale à la récession. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=2ONftjZraRY
Olivier Delamarche C'est Cash RT
,

C'est Cash, la nouvelle émission économique d'Olivier Delamarche

Un programme animé par Olivier Delamarche en compagnie d'Estelle Farge sur RT France où l'économiste présente sa vision de l'économie mondiale et les scénarios possibles pour l'année 2019, toujours très Cash.  
steen jakobsen
,

Macro Digest : False Stabilisation & Trade war

The G-20 meeting in Japan is a very bad place to go looking for a trade deal between China and US (WTO is one of the main agenda points) The rhetoric change in China this week takes down our 75/25 for a deal odds to 50/50 – Remember:…
steen jakobsen
,

FOMC - didn't buy the deflation.....yet....

FOMC delivered as we expected but more hawkish than consensus:   Saxo preview of Fed - May 1st 2019 We remain with key elements of yesterday’s view: If Saxo is right: small risk off – a correction inside the present bull market…
Macro digest chinese technology
,

Macro Digest: Chinese Technology stocks breaks down.....bad omen ?

Four charts to illustrate the “pain” of the market: The macro backdrop story is this: The CREDIT CAKE – the credit impulse + nominal debt issuance is collapsing – since the GFC the world monetary growth (main debt) has risen…
steen jakobsen
,

Macro Digest: It's not Turkey, it's the debt cycle

There is currently a lot of focus on Turkey, and for good reason, but Turkey is really only a second or third derivative of the global macro story. Turkey represents the catalyst for a new theme, which is “too much debt and current account…
steen jakobsen
,

Macro Digest: Deficits matters again - revisit to 1980s ? CNY and JPY in focus - deficit vs. surplus

Part of the ”Chinese panic” is the rising current account deficit….   Conclusion: China needs weaker CNY- we see test and potential break of 7.0000 inside next one year JPY is a turning point – close to being our highest…
steen jakobsen
, ,

Steen's Chronicle: 'The past is unpredictable'

An old Russian proverb asserts that times past can be as uncertain as times to come, and given both Russia's current circumstance and that of the global macro scene at large, it seems strangely apposite at the moment. Despite improving,…
steen jakobsen
, ,

Steen's Chronicle: All great things are simple... except right now

While our hopes may be simple, our circumstances are regrettably complex. With geopolitical risks on the rise, the global credit impulse having peaked, and central banks relying on outdated models, Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen says…
steen jakobsen
,

Macro Digest : The meeting of Presidents Trump vs Jinping - How Significant?

Interesting background piece by WSJ: Trump and China: Ahead of Summit, Both Sides Try to Reset Volatile Relationship https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-and-china-sniping-in-public-have-tried-in-private-to-lower-the-volume-1491322389   Pointers: …
steen jakobsen
,

Market report #1: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

Dear all, This is my first “The Good, the Bad, the Ugly” market report which kind of kicks off my blog. This market report will be publish every week or two ! If you like it, share it ! Have a wounderful week-end, Loic       Market…
steen jakobsen
, ,

Macro Digest : Bond alert & probably single most important chart this year

"Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair" – Sam Ewing   Doing some research for Bloomberg guest hosting in London on Thursday morning and came across this…
steen jakobsen
,

Druckenmiller more or less supports out basic MACRO premise...

Gold long, weak US growth, FED is lost and negative interest rates makes no sense...   I have been doing this job for close to 30 years now – through that time I have worked with some of the best talents in trading in the world,…
steen jakobsen
,

Macro Digest : Forget politics new trends are in place ...

  European leading growth is turning significant down…. But…versus “expected” it looks better? …. Makes no sense…. Don’t  forget this happens post Draghi – ECB’s  Bazooka …and I find it might interesting…