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Macro Digest: Another week, Another Brexit vote – The momentum now clearly with orderly divorce from the EU

Summary:  Another week, another Brexit vote. PM Johnson keeps trying and pushing for a Brexit by October 31st. Meanwhile Labour is trying to force a 2nd vote and to stall process to force extension to minimum January 31st. Saxo Bank sees 75% chance of Brexit before January 31st

Someone has to do it……the Brexit update ….!!!

Today, Monday will see big maneuvering by both sides to set the agenda in the Commons today. The Speaker John Bercow will rule on whether Government can bring forward a “meaningful vote” on its withdrawal agreement (source: Evening Standard). The potential outcomes excellently diagrammed by The Guardian below.

Furthermore judges are sitting and deciding if the unsigned letter asking for extension is in violation of the Benn act. “The Prime minister sent a total of three letters: An unsigned photocopy of the request he was obliged to send under the Benn act, an explanatory letter from the the UK ambassador to the EU and a personal letter explaining why Downing Street did not want an extension” – (Source: The Guardian)

The short-version including links:

  • Depending on ruling – Pass – no extension needed… or fail – either by procedure Letwin 2-amendent, or by vote…then vote on Tuesday to amend or withdraw withdrawal bill       
  • Rule if extension letter in violation of Ben act by judges (minor issue relatively…)   

After initial sell-off into Asian open GBPUSD has slowly been moving higher…1.2930 in time of writing… 1.2980 old high. Downing streets claims to have the votes to pass  the Withdrawal agreement if given vote straight vote Monday. Labour confident Speaker Bircow will stop this vote setting up Tuesday for 2nd reading of Withdrawal bill.

Unlikely we will have resolution in next 24 hours on this vote, the most likely remains a long week including next weekend being used to prepare October 31st exit from EU.

Probabilities according to Saxo:

  • Pass of Withdrawal deal including amendments by October 31st: 50%
  • Extension to January 31st, or longer: 25%
  • General Election including extension beyond January 31st: 25%

The momentum right now is to get deal done, but it’s a very fluid situation which we will keep updating…

Follow us on: analysis.saxo

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