
Macro Digest: Another week, Another Brexit vote - The momentum now clearly with orderly divorce from the EU
Summary: Another week, another Brexit vote. PM Johnson keeps trying and pushing for a Brexit by October 31st. Meanwhile Labour is trying to force a 2nd vote and to stall process to force extension to minimum January 31st. Saxo Bank…

Les taux et l’étau qui se resserre
La séance d’hier c’était le genre de journée qui fait qu’on se demande si on n’a pas meilleur temps d’ouvrir la bourse une fois par semaine juste pour faire un fixing et retourner jouer au golf.
Assis sur un banc
Que…

Marchés financiers : les signes de la dégradation
Nicolas Chéron analyse sur SicavOnline la dynamique baissière qui conduit l'économie mondiale à la récession.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=2ONftjZraRY

C'est Cash, la nouvelle émission économique d'Olivier Delamarche
Un programme animé par Olivier Delamarche en compagnie d'Estelle Farge sur RT France où l'économiste présente sa vision de l'économie mondiale et les scénarios possibles pour l'année 2019, toujours très Cash.

Steen’s Chronicle: welcome back to the 1970s
In
1976, the author Astrid Lindgren of Pippi Longstockings fame incurred a
102% marginal tax rate by the Swedish Government,
she countered by writing a satirical fairytale, "Pomperipossa in
Monismania" - I think the title explains itself.…

Macro Digest : False Stabilisation & Trade war
The G-20 meeting in Japan is a very bad place to go looking for a trade deal between China and US (WTO is one of the main agenda points)
The rhetoric change in China this week takes down our 75/25 for a deal odds to 50/50 – Remember:…

FOMC - didn't buy the deflation.....yet....
FOMC delivered as we expected but more hawkish than consensus: Saxo preview of Fed - May 1st 2019
We remain with key elements of yesterday’s view:
If Saxo is right: small risk off – a correction inside the present bull market…

Macro Digest: ECB hit MASSIVE PANIC button - what's next...
Draghi is failing the Feyman test of knowledge/facts:
Not only is ECB hitting panic button but risk remains to the downside!!! See this morning PRE-ECB note from me.
Our overall macro path from here is:
Now the Global Policy Panic theme I…

Macro Digest: Chinese Technology stocks breaks down.....bad omen ?
Four charts to illustrate the “pain” of the market:
The macro backdrop story is this:
The CREDIT CAKE – the credit impulse + nominal debt issuance is collapsing – since the GFC the world monetary growth (main debt) has risen…

Macro Digest: It's not Turkey, it's the debt cycle
There is currently a lot of focus on Turkey, and for good reason, but Turkey is really only a second or third derivative of the global macro story.
Turkey represents the catalyst for a new theme, which is “too much debt and current account…

Macro Digest: Deficits matters again - revisit to 1980s ? CNY and JPY in focus - deficit vs. surplus
Part of the ”Chinese panic” is the rising current account deficit….
Conclusion:
China needs weaker CNY- we see test and potential break of 7.0000 inside next one year
JPY is a turning point – close to being our highest…

Macro Digest: The Italian "non-event" could be a EURCHF event
Idea: Sell EURCHF @ 1.1815 w. s/l 1.2010
Why?
Uncertainty of new Italian government commitment to Europe and EUR
The fiscal expansion risk down-grade, higher spreads, and more uncertainty.
EURCHF correlates well with risk premium…

The Probability of US recession just gone from 60% to 70% over next 12 months ...
https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/969535037074001922
In my 30+ years of trading & economics I have NEVER seen more wrong assumptions and premises than the ones presented by the US Administration on trade.
Peter…

Macro Digest : White House & Congress creates sugar high(?)
Tonight US budget is just a political play, but despite this it will most likely create new “sugar high” for US fixed income, where rates are rising and curve is flattening – RISK of still dominant theme as we have a few days of correction.…

Macro Digest - VIX close to ALERT warning !
>14.58/60 trigger / presently 13.98
Objective: Risk warning on potential break-up in volatility and down-side in risk
Action: We suggest buying USDJPY volatility down-side as the most “clean” way of playing risk off –…