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Macro Digest: Another week, Another Brexit vote - The momentum now clearly with orderly divorce from the EU

Summary:  Another week, another Brexit vote. PM Johnson keeps trying and pushing for a Brexit by October 31st. Meanwhile Labour is trying to force a 2nd vote and to stall process to force extension to minimum January 31st. Saxo Bank…
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Les taux et l’étau qui se resserre

La séance d’hier c’était le genre de journée qui fait qu’on se demande si on n’a pas meilleur temps d’ouvrir la bourse une fois par semaine juste pour faire un fixing et retourner jouer au golf. Assis sur un banc Que…
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Marchés financiers : les signes de la dégradation

Nicolas Chéron analyse sur SicavOnline la dynamique baissière qui conduit l'économie mondiale à la récession. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=2ONftjZraRY
Olivier Delamarche C'est Cash RT
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C'est Cash, la nouvelle émission économique d'Olivier Delamarche

Un programme animé par Olivier Delamarche en compagnie d'Estelle Farge sur RT France où l'économiste présente sa vision de l'économie mondiale et les scénarios possibles pour l'année 2019, toujours très Cash.  
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest : False Stabilisation & Trade war

The G-20 meeting in Japan is a very bad place to go looking for a trade deal between China and US (WTO is one of the main agenda points) The rhetoric change in China this week takes down our 75/25 for a deal odds to 50/50 – Remember:…
steen jakobsen
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FOMC - didn't buy the deflation.....yet....

FOMC delivered as we expected but more hawkish than consensus:   Saxo preview of Fed - May 1st 2019 We remain with key elements of yesterday’s view: If Saxo is right: small risk off – a correction inside the present bull market…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: ECB hit MASSIVE PANIC button - what's next...

Draghi is failing the Feyman test of knowledge/facts: Not only is ECB hitting panic button but risk remains to the downside!!! See this morning PRE-ECB note from me. Our overall macro path from here is: Now the Global Policy Panic theme I…
Macro digest chinese technology
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Macro Digest: Chinese Technology stocks breaks down.....bad omen ?

Four charts to illustrate the “pain” of the market: The macro backdrop story is this: The CREDIT CAKE – the credit impulse + nominal debt issuance is collapsing – since the GFC the world monetary growth (main debt) has risen…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: It's not Turkey, it's the debt cycle

There is currently a lot of focus on Turkey, and for good reason, but Turkey is really only a second or third derivative of the global macro story. Turkey represents the catalyst for a new theme, which is “too much debt and current account…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: Deficits matters again - revisit to 1980s ? CNY and JPY in focus - deficit vs. surplus

Part of the ”Chinese panic” is the rising current account deficit….   Conclusion: China needs weaker CNY- we see test and potential break of 7.0000 inside next one year JPY is a turning point – close to being our highest…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: The Italian "non-event" could be a EURCHF event

Idea: Sell EURCHF @ 1.1815 w. s/l 1.2010 Why? Uncertainty of new Italian government commitment to Europe and EUR The fiscal expansion risk down-grade, higher spreads, and more uncertainty. EURCHF correlates well with risk premium…
steen jakobsen
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The Probability of US recession just gone from 60% to 70% over next 12 months ...

https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/969535037074001922   In my 30+ years of trading & economics I have NEVER seen more wrong assumptions and premises than the ones presented by the US Administration on trade. Peter…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest : White House & Congress creates sugar high(?)

Tonight US budget is just a political play, but despite this it will most likely create new “sugar high” for US fixed income, where rates are rising and curve is flattening – RISK of still dominant theme as we have a few days of correction.…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest - VIX close to ALERT warning !

>14.58/60 trigger / presently 13.98   Objective: Risk warning on potential break-up in volatility and down-side in risk   Action: We suggest buying USDJPY volatility down-side as the most “clean” way of playing risk off –…
steen jakobsen
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Steen's Chronicle: The Manipulation Game

Last weekend I once again watched The Imitation Game, the movie about Alan Turing, one of our life time biggest heroes and by many considered the father of the computer. The movies is top three ever for me, as it’s show the tale of an outsider…