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Macro Digest: Another week, Another Brexit vote - The momentum now clearly with orderly divorce from the EU

Summary:  Another week, another Brexit vote. PM Johnson keeps trying and pushing for a Brexit by October 31st. Meanwhile Labour is trying to force a 2nd vote and to stall process to force extension to minimum January 31st. Saxo Bank…
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Les taux et l’étau qui se resserre

La séance d’hier c’était le genre de journée qui fait qu’on se demande si on n’a pas meilleur temps d’ouvrir la bourse une fois par semaine juste pour faire un fixing et retourner jouer au golf. Assis sur un banc Que…
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Marchés financiers : les signes de la dégradation

Nicolas Chéron analyse sur SicavOnline la dynamique baissière qui conduit l'économie mondiale à la récession. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=2ONftjZraRY
Olivier Delamarche C'est Cash RT
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C'est Cash, la nouvelle émission économique d'Olivier Delamarche

Un programme animé par Olivier Delamarche en compagnie d'Estelle Farge sur RT France où l'économiste présente sa vision de l'économie mondiale et les scénarios possibles pour l'année 2019, toujours très Cash.  
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: Schluss! Aus! Vorbei! - The German election fall-out

    Source: http://www.bild.de/ Ms Merkel has failed to build a new government as coalition talks broke down yesterday – FDP took the decision to leave as they felt compromised in strategy paper on the table, mainly on refugees,…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: Bubbles, credit and FX EM

There is some ”noise” in credit we need to monitor (See below selection of charts)   Any time the market slips, like last week, there are plenty of new bids coming according to consensus analysis, but could it be that we finally…
steen jakobsen
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Steen's Chronicle: 'The past is unpredictable'

An old Russian proverb asserts that times past can be as uncertain as times to come, and given both Russia's current circumstance and that of the global macro scene at large, it seems strangely apposite at the moment. Despite improving,…
steen jakobsen
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Steen's Chronicle: All great things are simple... except right now

While our hopes may be simple, our circumstances are regrettably complex. With geopolitical risks on the rise, the global credit impulse having peaked, and central banks relying on outdated models, Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen says…
steen jakobsen
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Steen's Chronicle : Long gold, short $ and long fixed income ...

We have again and again argued that the ”forces” of the market leads one way only: -      Weaker US dollar as world would collapse with the opposite(strong dollar) under the burden of $ denominated debt -      Higher gold…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: Fed is wrong on inflation trend - very wrong

‘Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair’ Sam Ewing   I am in Singapore and a few clients been raising the issue of ‘inflation’ and the measurement…
steen jakobsen
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UK Election: The uninteded consequences

The main points: Conservatives and PM May have executed a terrible campaign - she has done ALL the mistakes of Clinton and the establishment: Safe pair of hands Not committing to anything Talking about energy regulation No committing…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest : Mieux vaut prévenir que guérir - French Election

Market reaction: Sell the fact – We have been very positive Euro and European (mainly French equities) now is time to go NEUTRAL on both as the real work will be vastly different from winning the Presidency. The Euro growth outperformance…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest : The meeting of Presidents Trump vs Jinping - How Significant?

Interesting background piece by WSJ: Trump and China: Ahead of Summit, Both Sides Try to Reset Volatile Relationship https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-and-china-sniping-in-public-have-tried-in-private-to-lower-the-volume-1491322389   Pointers: …
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest : Bank of England getting ready for lift off on rates?

 - Be long the underowned & priced for imperfection currencies: GBP, MXN and ZAR - Bank of England votes 8-to-1 for unchanged.   Key phrase: "With inflation rising sharply, and only mixed evidence on slowing activity domestically,…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest : A Trump Tower accord or a direct weak Dollar policy?

      There is an ever increasing risk that President Trump will pursue at weak Dollar policy outright – it makes sense for his “program” as more export is needed to grow and it matches heavily indebted emerging…
steen jakobsen
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Macro Digest: Goodbye Mr. President - Hallo Mr. President Elect

Obama final speech was classic Barrack – excellent, but thin on “progress to report”….now on to Trump’s press conference (5 pm CET), which with new Russian link allegations will have massive exposure... Trump has animated the “free…